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Example Results for TR-55: the 2002 Bullock Fire in the Coronado National Forest, Arizona
The TR-55 model was used to estimate post-fire peak flows on the 2002 Bullock fire (Lefevre and others, 2002). The table below shows the analysis that was conducted. The "2-year post-fire equivalent" displays the corresponding flood level expected from a typical 2-year storm event.
| Site name |
2-yr |
Q2 |
Q5 |
Q10 |
Q25 |
Q50 |
Q100 |
|
| post-fire |
||||||||
| equiv |
(cfs) |
(cfs) |
(cfs) |
(cfs) |
(cfs) |
(cfs) |
||
| |
||||||||
| Bear Canyon: main canyon at highway | -- |
Pre |
89 |
220 |
326 |
535 |
668 |
847 |
| 25 |
Post |
445 |
734 |
944 |
1,336 |
1,566 |
1,849 |
|
| Bear Canyon: west canyon at highway | -- |
Pre |
9 |
21 |
31 |
50 |
62 |
81 |
| 25 |
Post |
38 |
62 |
79 |
111 |
130 |
158 |
|
| Willow Canyon summer home area at crossing | -- |
Pre |
1 |
5 |
10 |
27 |
41 |
63 |
| 25 |
Post |
18 |
49 |
74 |
123 |
155 |
197 |
|
| Rose Canyon campground at lower crossing | -- |
Pre |
2 |
9 |
16 |
44 |
68 |
111 |
| 5 |
Post |
10 |
34 |
62 |
123 |
163 |
227 |
|
| Barnum Rock at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
| 100+ |
Post |
17 |
28 |
36 |
50 |
58 |
69 |
|
| Sollers at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
1 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
15 |
| 100 |
Post |
12 |
22 |
29 |
44 |
52 |
66 |
|
| Sollers West at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
12 |
19 |
|
100 |
Post |
22 |
36 |
45 |
63 |
74 |
90 | |
| Slide Area at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
1 |
2 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
| 50 |
Post |
9 |
16 |
21 |
31 |
37 |
46 |
|
| Slide Area West at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
| 50 |
Post |
5 |
9 |
12 |
18 |
21 |
27 |
|
| Incinerator Ridge East at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
| 100 |
Post |
7 |
10 |
13 |
18 |
21 |
25 |
|
| Incinerator Ridge at highway | -- |
Pre |
0 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
6 |
9 |
| 50 |
Post |
5 |
10 |
13 |
20 |
24 |
31 |
|
| Bear Willow summer home area | -- |
Pre |
0 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
| 100+ |
Post |
7 |
11 |
13 |
17 |
20 |
23 |
|
| Control Road at Green Springs | -- |
Pre |
1 |
2 |
5 |
12 |
17 |
26 |
| 100 |
Post |
30 |
48 |
61 |
84 |
98 |
118 |
|
| Marble Peak at Mine entrance | -- |
Pre |
11 |
31 |
52 |
81 |
102 |
136 |
| 50 |
Post |
103 |
158 |
204 |
262 |
301 |
360 |
|
| Lone Wolf Ranch at Eastern property line | -- |
Pre |
15 |
35 |
55 |
83 |
103 |
135 |
| 10 |
Post |
55 |
93 |
128 |
173 |
202 |
246 |
|
Bold numbers represent similar peak flows. For example, a 2-year, post-fire peak flow (445 cfs) is equivalent to a 25-year, pre-fire peak flow (535 cfs).
REFERENCES
Lefevre, Robert; [and others]. 2002. BAER report, Bullock Fire, Coronado National Forest, Arizona. Tucson, AZ: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region, Coronado National Forest. 14 p.
USDA Forest Service - RMRS - Moscow Forestry Sciences
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